Do you ever feel a little glow of patriotic pride in your research work? At Versta Research we sometimes do. Here’s why: the United States of America gives us and you—all free, and all easily accessible—one of the most amazing, useful resources available to every person and every business and every researcher: Census Data. It…
How many people do you think are college-educated in the United States? If you’re like most clients we work for (whose family members, friends and co-workers nearly all have college degrees) you will substantially over-estimate that number. The answer is a mere 29%. If you include associate’s degrees, then it goes up to 37%. These…
Here is an update on what went wrong with the Clinton vs. Trump polling debacle last fall, according to AAPOR’s official Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S. that was released several weeks ago. The conclusions are based on an analysis and assessment of publicly available polling data plus additional data supplied by top…
It was so weird, right after the election, to see a media frenzy heaping praise and attention on the one poll that got it wrong. The USC/LA Times poll predicted a Trump win, with 47% of voters choosing Trump and 44% choosing Clinton. Right after the election, media headlines trumpeted its success: “How One Pollster…
How many young African American men support Donald Trump? Not many. But if one of them ends up randomly selected into your survey, and if you use statistical weighting to ensure the sample does not skew too old and too white, then you are in trouble. This is what’s happening to the LA Times’ election…
You would think that the chancellor of a prestigious school like M.I.T.—a university that prides itself on practical applications of mathematics—would know something about how probabilities work with survey sampling. Apparently not. Quoting a New York Times article about M.I.T.’s survey of students about sexual assault on campus: