For the longest time I was puzzled by what it means to “over-fit” a model to one’s data. How can a model describe one’s data too perfectly? Aren’t we trying to get as close to a perfect fit as possible? This one-minute video will show you an example of over-fitting. After watching it, the odd…
I have never been a media poll watcher or politics junkie who tracks every new poll saying which candidate is favored to win. It is hard to see the point of spending so much time and money predicting the outcome of an event that will be known with certainty within a matter of days, weeks,…
We love this cartoon because it raises such interesting issues about probability and prediction in market research. Here’s a quiz. Suppose you own a retail store and want us to help predict which customers that come through the door will buy. You want to focus your sales efforts on the best prospects. We do our…
One of the cool things about social science and marketing research is that it brings together mathematics and human behavior. Mathematics is beautiful, elegant, and abstract. It is much like art. Human behavior is messy, contradictory, and frustrating, desperately in need of a way to make sense of it. Bringing the two together – turning…