It was so weird, right after the election, to see a media frenzy heaping praise and attention on the one poll that got it wrong. The USC/LA Times poll predicted a Trump win, with 47% of voters choosing Trump and 44% choosing Clinton. Right after the election, media headlines trumpeted its success: “How One Pollster…
Polling and phone technologies may finally have reached the point where mobile phones are no longer a threat to phone-based surveys, but a superior alternative. Only half (52%) of U.S. households now have a landline telephone. In contrast, more than nine out of ten adults have a mobile phone. And the latest findings from Pew…
Nine out of ten Americans (89%) regularly use the Internet. So the old argument that online surveys will miss big chunks of the U.S. population is no longer valid. But an important question remains: Are the remaining one in ten (11%) who are beyond reach with online surveys substantially different from the others? And if…
There are good reasons to avoid phone surveys if you can. But if there is no alternative, it is critical to think about strategies for integrating cell phones into your outreach and sampling. Almost half (48%) of U.S. adults have no landline telephone service, while fewer than one in ten (9%) have no cell phone…
If ever there were evidence that phone surveys are dead, it’s this: Gallup, the undisputed king of telephone polling for decades, has withdrawn from the race. The firm announced last week that it will not conduct candidate polling for the 2016 presidential election. This comes after the miserable failure of its polling in 2012, which…
Two of my usually-favorite sources for information and insight (AAPOR and the New York Times) came together this week with an embarrassing, face-scrunching example of convoluted statistical reporting: But Internet use correlates inversely with age and voting habits, making [online polling] a more severe problem in predicting elections. While all but 3 percent of those…
I resist the idea of using Twitter for research because I do not know anyone beyond journalists, PR people, and marketing folks who actually use Twitter. Well, that’s a terrible reason to dismiss a potentially rich source of data, especially because one premise of survey research is that small parts can represent the whole. My…
One of the cardinal sins of market research is to misrepresent the purpose of research and how it will be used. The colorful terms used for two of the most common forms for misrepresentation are SUGGING and FRUGGING. The first of these stands for Selling Under the Guise of research. The nefarious “research” firm calls…
[SEE CARTOON] Of course those 99% keep reading the pointless polls, and most research firms are happy to keep generating pointless polls. The problem? Too few research firms are willing and able to help clients differentiate a survey that is informative and truly worthy of print, versus one that is pointless. So how do you…
Telephones used to be an awesome way to find a random sample of Americans. Nearly all Americans had a home telephone, nearly everybody would answer if you called, and most were willing to answer survey questions to help researchers understand public opinion. In fact, telephones have been so central to scientific survey research that the…